India: Growth recovered in Q3 – Standard Chartered

India will release GDP data for Q3-FY20 (ended December 2019) and the second advance estimate for FY20 growth on 28 February. Analysts at Standard Chartered estimate a growth recovery in the third quarter. USD/INR trades at 71.923.

Key quotes

“We estimate that growth recovered to 4.8% in Q3 from a six-year low of 4.5% in Q2.”

“While GDP growth likely averaged 4.8% in the first three quarters of FY20, we are keeping our full-year growth forecast unchanged at 5% due to technical factors; FY19 growth was recently revised lower to 6.1% from 6.8%, which may lead to data revisions in quarterly growth rates and the second advance estimate for FY20. This may pose upside risks to our Q3 estimate.”

“While GDP growth appears to have bottomed out, we see risks from global headwinds, especially the coronavirus outbreak, which could weigh on India’s Q4-FY20 growth. The Reserve Bank of India estimates that a 50bps drop in global growth would shave off 20bps from India’s growth.”