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16 Dec 2024

JPY: Less than 20% of a BoJ rate hike on Thursday – ING

After a raft of source-based stories over the last two weeks, the market now attaches a less than 20% probability to a 25bp Bank of Japan hike this Thursday. USD/JPY looks biased to the 155 area ahead of the rate meeting, ING’s FX analyst Chirs Turner notes.

USD/JPY looks biased to the 155 area

“Our team thinks the chances are higher. However, helping to swing the BoJ's decision may be the level of USD/JPY. This has crept up to 154 recently, helped by both these source stories plus the sell-off in the US Treasury market.”

“While our medium-term valuation models show the yen as the most undervalued currency in the G10 space, our baseline forecasts do, however, show USD/JPY moving steadily higher through 2025 as US Treasury yields rise. The yen will remain the hedge against the inevitable periods of risk asset corrections in 2025, but barring surprise US macro weakness, 2025 should be bullish for USD/JPY.”

“For this week, we think USD/JPY looks biased to the 155 area ahead of Thursday's BoJ rate meeting.”

Dec 16, 2024

EUR/USD: It’s Germany’s turn to vote – OCBC

Chancellor Scholz had called for a vote of confidence on Wed and the Bundestag will vote later today.
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Dec 16, 2024

DXY: Mixed ahead of Fed rate meeting – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) traded mixed this morning ahead of the much anticipated FOMC meeting this Thu (3am SGT).
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